CONSULTING PROJECT · MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA · 2025

Excelerate EnergyLNG Market Entry Strategy

Multi-country market evaluation, full 10-year DCF financial model, and C-suite strategic recommendation.

Disclaimer: The numbers in these models are not the originals, but the conclusions are.

[S] SITUATION

—Excelerate Energy is a US-based LNG infrastructure company specializing in Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs)
—Six emerging markets were evaluated: Iraq, South Africa, Morocco, Ghana, Tanzania, and Sierra Leone

"Identify the optimal country for Excelerate Energy's next FSRU LNG terminal across 6 emerging markets in Africa and the Middle East"

[T] TASK

"As Financial and Strategy Modeling Lead on a 4-person consulting team, I built the proprietary Evaluation Matrix, developed a full 10-year DCF + 3-statement financial model with scenario and sensitivity analysis, and co-presented strategic recommendations directly to Excelerate Energy's C-suite."

DCF & 3-Statement ModelEvaluation Matrix6-Country ResearchC-Suite Presentation

[A] ACTION

Strategic Evaluation Matrix

The evaluation framework assessed 6 countries across 4 weighted pillars to produce an objective country score. Each pillar was further broken into sub-criteria with individual scores, enabling a data-driven investment recommendation.

20%

Political Stability

30%

Infrastructure

20%

Regulatory Environment

30%

Financial Metrics

Evaluation Factors & Scoring Detail

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Sub-Criteria Breakdown

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Final Country Scores Table

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South Africa #1 Overall (71.6) | Iraq #1 Financial Metrics (86.0) & Infrastructure (92.4)

Financial Model - Iraq Base Case

Iraq ranked #1 in both Financial Metrics and Infrastructure, making it the primary subject of the full 10-year financial model. All figures are in USD millions (USDm).

Assumptions

Valuation & Revenue Inputs

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Capex, Financing & WACC

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WACC: 9.6% | Capex: $380M | LNG Price: $12/MMBtu | 4 MMT/yr capacity | 10% contingency buffer

Income Statement

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Y5 Revenue: $2,304M | EBITDA Margin: 88.9% | Net Income stabilizes at $1,412M from Y4 onward

Balance Sheet

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Total Assets: $209M (Y1) → $10,719M (Y10) | Balance check = $0 every year

Cash Flow Statement

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First positive cumulative FCF in Y3 | Closing cash balance reaches $10,369M by Y10

DCF Valuation

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Sum of PV of FCFs: $5,377M | WACC: 9.6% | Discount factors applied across 10-year horizon

Terminal Value & Enterprise Value

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Enterprise Value (NPV): $12,930M | IRR: 119.3% | 34× Capex Return Multiple | Payback: Y3

Sensitivity Analysis

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Worst case (13.5% WACC + $10 LNG) = NPV $2,800M still positive | Capex overrun of 15% = only -$160M NPV impact

Scenario Analysis

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Bear $3.2B | Base $10.8B | Bull $18.5B → Investment Decision: STRONG GO across Base & Bull

C-Suite Presentation Deck

22-slide strategic deck presented to Excelerate Energy's C-suite, covering country-by-country analysis, evaluation matrix methodology, financial deep-dives, recommendations, and post-entry action plan.

[R] RESULT

South Africa & Iraq recommended as immediate-entry markets; Morocco as evaluate; Ghana/Sierra Leone long-term

Iraq base-case NPV of $10.8B on $380M Capex — 28× return multiple

8-phase post-entry action plan delivered: Market Validation → Partner Search → Execution → Monitoring

Delivered as GWU CAP capstone directly to Excelerate Energy leadership

OUTCOME CONFIRMED

Excelerate Energy confirms investment

[R] REFLECTION

I went in expecting the numbers to tell the story but they didn't. The most decisive factor in the market recommendation wasn't the DCF output, it was the regulatory landscape and import infrastructure gaps that no spreadsheet captures cleanly. That gap between quantitative rigor and qualitative judgment is where strategy actually lives, and this project made that real for me in a way coursework never did.

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